M03014: Epidemiological assessment of the potential risk to human health in GB posed by possible BSE infection within the national flock
Wednesday 25 June 2003
This research project aims to assess the potential risk to human health if the sheep population was infected with BSE.
Background
This project consists of a detailed assessment of the potential scale of human exposure to BSE infectivity in food that the presence of BSE in sheep might have posed historically and might continue to pose at the current time.
Research Approach
Due to lack of relevant data, this study does not attempt to evaluate the likelihood that BSE entered the sheep population as a result of past exposure to contaminated meat and bonemeal (MBM)-based feed. Instead it investigates the potential consequences of assuming that some infection of the national flock occurred and puts this data into a transmission model of BSE in sheep, which is used to generate feasible scenarios for the spread of BSE in the sheep population. The potential scale of human exposure will be estimated, together with the likely impact of a variety of additional risk reduction measures. Finally, the impact of possible sheep-related exposure on the latest projections of vCJD epidemic size will be examined, in order to get insight into the possible absolute risk of vCJD infection posed by historical and current exposure to BSE infectivity in both sheep and cattle.