M03021: Epidemiological assessment of the risk to human health from BSE in GB cattle and of the potential impact of modifying existing control measures
Wednesday 25 June 2003
This research project aims to estimate the current risk to human health of BSE in cattle and the effect on the risk of possible changes to the OTM rule.
Background
Risk analysis is necessary to inform policy decisions on the use of control measures for cattle production.
Research Approach
The following objectives are to be investigated by Imperial College: UK agricultural census and cattle tracing scheme databases will be used to update estimates of key demographic parameters for the GB cattle herd; BSE screening data will be cross-linked with other cattle databases and analysed for evidence of selection biases; backcalculation methods will be adapted to make use of data from random screening of healthy animals as well as data on reported clinical cases, this will be used to estimate the level of case ascertainment; casualty/fallen stock surveys will be used to explore different hypotheses accounting for under-ascertainment; maternal transmission and ongoing feed-borne infection will be investigated as possible mechanisms for ongoing infection risk in recent cattle cohorts; projections of future case and infection incidence and of human exposure will be made for UK; the effect of a wide range of possible future human risk reduction strategies that might replace the current over-thirty-month (OTM) scheme will be investigated. In addition DNV Consulting are to estimate the potential exposure to BSE infectivity for a range of possible risk reduction strategies that might replace the current OTM Rule by considering the infectivity present in different tissues and the ways by which that infectivity could enter the human food chain.
Results and findings
Two final reports are awaited for this project, one from DNV Consulting and one from Imperial College.