On 31 December 2019, the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Most early cases were associated with visiting Wuhan South China Seafood City market, which reportedly sold meat, poultry, seafood and live animals. On the 11 and 12 January the WHO received further evidence from the National Health Commission identifying the cause of these infections as a novel coronavirus first isolated on the 7 January. The novel coronavirus has been named SARS-CoV-2 and the disease caused by it has been named COVID-19.
Overall risk estimate
We consider that the probability that UK consumers will receive potentially infectious exposures of SARS-CoV-2 via the consumption of food or the handling of food contact materials or packaging is Very Low (‘very rare but cannot be excluded’). The uncertainty associated with this estimate is High partly as there are significant data gaps relating specifically to SARS-CoV-2; several assumptions in this document are therefore based on data relating to other coronaviruses (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV).
The worldwide case fatality rate for the disease COVID-19 appears to be around 4% based on current reports, meaning the severity of detriment is considered High (Severe illness: causing life-threatening or substantial sequelae or illness of long duration); high-risk groups include people with weakened immune systems, older people, and those with certain long-term conditions like diabetes, cancer and chronic lung disease.
Uncertainty relating to severity of detriment is Low; significant volumes of data are now available although current case fatality estimates may be biased as a result of incomplete outcomes and the potential for severe cases to be overrepresented in early detections.
We note that the genome of SARS-CoV-2 suggests that it is most closely related to SARS-CoV, for which foodborne transmission was not implicated in any cases of infection. This assessment represents a conservative estimate of risk while acknowledging and reflecting current knowledge gaps.
Limitations of this assessment
This risk assessment does not currently consider:
- The risk associated with illegal importation activities. This is due to the lack of data on volumes of product illegally entering the UK as well as their processing and transportation
- The occupational risk to food preparers or those frequently exposed to products of animal origin, for example slaughterhouse workers
- Implications for integrity of the food chain, including reduced availability of food handlers, packers or distributors if they themselves become ill or reduced availability of approved disinfectants, etc for cleaning of food manufacturing equipment and food preparation areas due to shortages
Potential future developments which could significantly alter this assessment include:
- Any evidence or suspicion of transmission via food
- Experimental studies suggesting that foodborne transmission could occur
- Further data on the incidence of infection in the UK, particularly of the proportion of infections which are subclinical, for example significant changes to testing policy in the UK
- Evidence that UK livestock or companion animals could become infected
- New data significantly changing our assessment of the effects of storage or processing on the activity of virus in food, or survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on surfaces and the general environment
We consider that the probability of exposure of UK consumers to SARS-CoV-2 via food produced in the UK is Negligible to Very Low (between ‘so rare that it does not merit to be considered’ and ‘very rare but cannot be excluded’). The uncertainty associated with this estimate is High as there are still limited data relating specifically to SARS-CoV-2.